Kondratiev and the Dynamics of Economic Development
Barnet presents the first in-depth analysis in English of the pioneer of long cycle analysis, N.D. Kondratiev (1892-1938). Kondratiev was a key economic policy advisor to the Soviet government in the early part of the 1920s, before falling out of favour after 1926 and being jailed in 1930. After spending eight years in prison he was finally executed in 1938 for his allegiance to the mixed economy of NEP. Kondratiev developed a market-led industrialisation strategy for the USSR, in direct opposition to Stalin's centrally planned industrialisation programme, and was the director of a centre for the study of business cycles and forecasting between 1920 and 1928, the Conjuncture Institute. It was within the Conjuncture Institute that Kondratiev developed his analysis of long cycles, and where this idea was subject to rigorous criticism. The Conjuncture Institute also produced revolutionary ideas in the general field of business cycles and econometrics such as those by E.E. Slutskii and A.A. Konyus, some of which are still in use today. This book provides an overview of all Kondratiev's theoretical innovations and policy-relevant activities and includes newly-available archive material.